Suchergebnisse

Several databases are being used in Denmark to record information at all stages and levels of modern livestock production. These databases are all developed for different purposes and gather large volumes of routinely collected data. Examples of existing databases for livestock are the Central Husbandry Register (CHR), Meat inspection database for cattle and swine, mortality database and movement database. These databases are owned by the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries. Other databases, such as the Danish Cattle Database, are owned by the agricultural sector. In addition to the technical and political bottlenecks of gathering and combining data from the different databases, the questions remain on the sensitivity and timeliness of data for detecting unexpected animal health events. Thus, it is important to explore changes in data records over time from different databases in order to detect potential patterns. This includes describing trends, seasonality and the potential impact of covariates on the baseline patterns. The potential of these data as monitoring tools can be evaluated using performance indicators such as residuals, predictive positive values, sensitivity and specificity, and by comparing the predictions of models with previous diseases events in Denmark. A further challenge is to identify the most adequate surveillance timescale (i.e. daily, weekly or monthly basis) as well as suitable spatial distances, in order to identify outlier events when the features of the alarm (e.g. shape and amplitude) are unknown. Using rule-based anomaly detection will allow developing a spatio-temporal monitoring framework based on time-series analysis and statistical process control in order to optimize methods for detection of anomalies in data patterns and methods for early warning. It is expected that the use of such information in space and time, might provide information which can be used either directly as a syndromic surveillance tool or to aid in a more targeted or directed disease surveillance program. This will enable a timely and appropriate response to a disease outbreak, minimizing economic impacts through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures.

To minimize the potential consequences of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Europe, European Union (EU) member states are required to present a contingency plan. This study used a simulation model to study potential outbreak scenarios in Sweden and evaluate the best control strategies. The model was informed by the Swedish livestock structure using herd information from cattle, pig, and small ruminant holdings in the country. The contact structure was based on animal movement data and studies investigating the movements between farms of veterinarians, service trucks, and other farm visitors. All scenarios of outbreak control included depopulation of detected herds, 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zones, movement tracing, and 3 days national standstill. The effect of availability of surveillance resources, i.e., number of field veterinarians per day, and timeliness of enforcement of interventions, was assessed. With the estimated currently available resources, an FMD outbreak in Sweden is expected to be controlled (i.e., last infected herd detected) within 3 weeks of detection in any evaluated scenario. The density of farms in the area where the epidemic started would have little impact on the time to control the outbreak, but spread in high density areas would require more surveillance resources, compared to areas of lower farm density. The use of vaccination did not result in a reduction in the expected number of infected herds. Preemptive depopulation was able to reduce the number of infected herds in extreme scenarios designed to test a combination of worst-case conditions of virus introduction and spread, but at the cost of doubling the number of herds culled. This likely resulted from a combination of the small outbreaks predicted by the spread model, and the high efficacy of the basic control measures evaluated, under the conditions of the Swedish livestock industry, and considering the assumed control resources available. The results indicate that the duration and extent of FMD outbreaks could be kept limited in Sweden using the EU standard control strategy and a 3 days national standstill.